Earnings jumps
How much a stock moves the moment quarterly numbers land, and whether any of it is predictable beforehand. Every percentage is measured from the last close struck before anyone knew the numbers.
$697.52 at the close on 21 Oct 2026 → $676.35 at the next open. It closed that first session at $648.85 (−7.0%), and two weeks later stood —.
See Meta's history →Tested: “sell the spikes, hold the drops”
Buying before a report, selling into big up-gaps and holding the down ones, across all 580 reports on this watchlist. It underperforms simply holding at every horizon — up-gaps keep drifting up and down-gaps keep lagging, so the rule is backwards on both halves.
See the numbers →Which of these actually move
Median overnight move on report night, direction ignored. This is the size of the coin flip you take on by holding through a print — not a prediction of which way it lands.
All companies
“Run-in predicts?” asks whether the two weeks before a report told you anything about the jump — a correlation test on that company's own history.
| Company | Typical move | Up / down | Biggest jump | Biggest drop | Run-in predicts? | Reports |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CloudflareNET | 8.0% | 17 / 11 | ↑ 21.9% | ↓ 25.5% | no | 28 |
| AmazonAMZN | 7.1% | 43 / 45 | ↑ 22.2% | ↓ 16.6% | no | 88 |
| MetaMETA | 6.6% | 33 / 25 | ↑ 26.5% | ↓ 24.5% | no | 58 |
| ShopifySHOP | 6.1% | 23 / 20 | ↑ 21.7% | ↓ 17.4% | no | 43 |
| TeslaTSLA | 5.4% | 33 / 32 | ↑ 25.7% | ↓ 12.4% | no | 65 |
| AlphabetGOOGL | 4.5% | 25 / 19 | ↑ 11.8% | ↓ 8.1% | no | 44 |
| NvidiaNVDA | 3.9% | 54 / 34 | ↑ 26.1% | ↓ 19.3% | no | 88 |
| AppleAAPL | 3.8% | 54 / 34 | ↑ 9.9% | ↓ 12.5% | no | 88 |
| MicrosoftMSFT | 3.3% | 54 / 34 | ↑ 12.6% | ↓ 10.5% | some link (r -0.29) | 88 |