NET · 28 quarters on record · reports after the close
Four questions answered from Cloudflare's own 28 reports. Averages carry a 95% range; when that range crosses zero, the honest reading is “no edge detected”, not “a small edge”.
Leans up — 61%
17 up, 11 down across 28 reports. Still 39% of the time it went the other way.
No
Correlation between the two weeks before and the overnight gap is 0.05 — essentially none, and not distinguishable from chance at n = 28. How Cloudflare traded into the print said nothing about which way it gapped.
Nothing above just holding it
Buying at the last close before the report and selling two weeks later averaged +1.6% across 28 reports. But any 11-session hold of Cloudflare, started on any day in the same era, averaged +2.8% — so the report-specific part is −1.2%. The 95% range on the earnings trade is −3.6% to +6.8%, which includes the ordinary-hold figure — buying before a report has paid about what owning Cloudflare at any other time paid. The report adds swing, not return.
Holding through did better by 1.2pp
Buying at the open after the news and selling two weeks later averaged +0.3%, against +1.6% for holding through. The difference is −1.2%, but holding through also exposes you to the 8.0% median overnight swing — which landed against you 39% of the time, worst at −25.5%. The two averages' ranges overlap, so the difference itself is not distinguishable from noise; the difference in risk is the real one.
All 28 windows averaged and stacked on the report. The shaded band is the middle half of outcomes — its width is the point: the average line is a poor description of any single quarter.
Each dot is one quarter: how it traded in the two weeks before (across) against the overnight gap it produced (up). A shapeless cloud means the run-in told you nothing — r = 0.05, not distinguishable from chance.
Up is green, down is red; the arrow and sign carry the direction too.
Two weeks either side of each report, indexed to the last close before the numbers came out. The shaded area is how much of the move the report accounts for. The other 20 quarters are in the table below.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $284.43 on 6 Aug 2026 → $318.00 at the open on 7 Aug 2026. The first session gave some back.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $256.79 on 7 May 2026 → $217.22 at the open on 8 May 2026. The first session kept going.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $179.98 on 10 Feb 2026 → $203.05 at the open on 11 Feb 2026. The first session gave some back.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $222.50 on 30 Oct 2025 → $236.50 at the open on 31 Oct 2025. The first session kept going.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $207.68 on 31 Jul 2025 → $198.66 at the open on 1 Aug 2025. The first session gave some back.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $124.31 on 8 May 2025 → $133.62 at the open on 9 May 2025. The first session gave some back.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $141.52 on 6 Feb 2025 → $153.50 at the open on 7 Feb 2025. The first session kept going.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $95.66 on 7 Nov 2024 → $88.45 at the open on 8 Nov 2024. The first session gave some back.
Newest first. Quarter links open the filing on SEC EDGAR.
| Quarter | Reported | When | Last close before | Reaction open | Overnight gap | First session | 2w before | 2w after | Then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 6 Aug 2026 | after close | $284.43 | $318.00 | ↑ +11.8% | +5.6% | +8.4% | +3.1% | gave some back |
| Q1 2026 | 7 May 2026 | after close | $256.79 | $217.22 | ↓ −15.4% | −23.6% | +25.3% | −15.8% | kept going |
| Q4 2025 | 10 Feb 2026 | after close | $179.98 | $203.05 | ↑ +12.8% | +5.2% | −12.6% | −3.0% | gave some back |
| Q3 2025 | 30 Oct 2025 | after close | $222.50 | $236.50 | ↑ +6.3% | +13.8% | +5.3% | −5.3% | kept going |
| Q2 2025 | 31 Jul 2025 | after close | $207.68 | $198.66 | ↓ −4.3% | −3.6% | +8.6% | −3.3% | gave some back |
| Q1 2025 | 8 May 2025 | after close | $124.31 | $133.62 | ↑ +7.5% | +6.5% | +4.6% | +27.1% | gave some back |
| Q4 2024 | 6 Feb 2025 | after close | $141.52 | $153.50 | ↑ +8.5% | +17.8% | +14.2% | +4.6% | kept going |
| Q3 2024 | 7 Nov 2024 | after close | $95.66 | $88.45 | ↓ −7.5% | −4.6% | +6.8% | +9.0% | gave some back |
| Q2 2024 | 1 Aug 2024 | after close | $74.40 | $79.50 | ↑ +6.9% | +6.8% | −5.2% | +10.7% | gave some back |
| Q1 2024 | 2 May 2024 | after close | $88.97 | $78.23 | ↓ −12.1% | −16.4% | +2.6% | −15.4% | kept going |
| Q4 2023 | 8 Feb 2024 | after close | $90.31 | $110.10 | ↑ +21.9% | +19.5% | +10.3% | +9.7% | gave some back |
| Q3 2023 | 2 Nov 2023 | after close | $56.58 | $57.47 | ↑ +1.6% | +13.9% | −9.9% | +28.5% | kept going |
| Q2 2023 | 3 Aug 2023 | after close | $65.04 | $71.83 | ↑ +10.4% | +6.9% | −3.3% | −9.3% | gave some back |
| Q1 2023 | 27 Apr 2023 | after close | $59.58 | $44.41 | ↓ −25.5% | −21.0% | −8.2% | −17.0% | gave some back |
| Q4 2022 | 9 Feb 2023 | after close | $58.17 | $63.65 | ↑ +9.4% | +3.3% | +17.5% | +3.6% | gave some back |
| Q3 2022 | 3 Nov 2022 | after close | $50.37 | $47.00 | ↓ −6.7% | −18.4% | −6.1% | −6.7% | kept going |
| Q2 2022 | 4 Aug 2022 | after close | $58.43 | $68.58 | ↑ +17.4% | +27.1% | +4.7% | +17.3% | kept going |
| Q1 2022 | 5 May 2022 | after close | $77.81 | $65.41 | ↓ −15.9% | −15.7% | −21.0% | −28.4% | gave some back |
| Q4 2021 | 10 Feb 2022 | after close | $115.96 | $119.50 | ↑ +3.1% | −9.5% | +44.3% | +0.4% | reversed |
| Q3 2021 | 4 Nov 2021 | after close | $201.09 | $216.08 | ↑ +7.5% | −1.9% | +10.5% | +4.9% | reversed |
| Q2 2021 | 5 Aug 2021 | after close | $121.46 | $117.28 | ↓ −3.4% | −2.2% | +6.8% | −1.2% | gave some back |
| Q1 2021 | 6 May 2021 | after close | $69.07 | $74.93 | ↑ +8.5% | +3.7% | −8.4% | +8.3% | gave some back |
| Q4 2020 | 11 Feb 2021 | after close | $91.28 | $86.32 | ↓ −5.4% | −5.8% | +15.8% | −15.8% | kept going |
| Q3 2020 | 5 Nov 2020 | after close | $58.00 | $63.73 | ↑ +9.9% | +11.2% | +3.9% | +14.7% | kept going |
| Q2 2020 | 6 Aug 2020 | after close | $41.35 | $41.00 | ↓ −0.8% | −3.1% | +13.5% | −5.9% | kept going |
| Q1 2020 | 7 May 2020 | after close | $29.52 | $26.76 | ↓ −9.3% | −11.0% | +24.4% | −4.3% | kept going |
| Q4 2019 | 13 Feb 2020 | after close | $18.07 | $18.46 | ↑ +2.2% | −1.8% | −1.4% | +22.2% | reversed |
| Q3 2019 | 7 Nov 2019 | after close | $15.89 | $16.30 | ↑ +2.6% | +1.4% | +0.3% | +11.8% | gave some back |