TSLA · 65 quarters on record · reports after the close
Four questions answered from Tesla's own 65 reports. Averages carry a 95% range; when that range crosses zero, the honest reading is “no edge detected”, not “a small edge”.
A coin flip
33 up, 32 down across 65 reports. Direction is not something this history predicts.
No
Correlation between the two weeks before and the overnight gap is 0.08 — essentially none, and not distinguishable from chance at n = 65. How Tesla traded into the print said nothing about which way it gapped.
Nothing above just holding it
Buying at the last close before the report and selling two weeks later averaged +5.4% across 64 reports. But any 11-session hold of Tesla, started on any day in the same era, averaged +2.3% — so the report-specific part is +3.1%. The 95% range on the earnings trade is +0.9% to +9.9%, which includes the ordinary-hold figure — buying before a report has paid about what owning Tesla at any other time paid. The report adds swing, not return.
Holding through did better by 1.6pp
Buying at the open after the news and selling two weeks later averaged +3.8%, against +5.4% for holding through. The difference is −1.6%, but holding through also exposes you to the 5.4% median overnight swing — which landed against you 49% of the time, worst at −12.4%. The two averages' ranges overlap, so the difference itself is not distinguishable from noise; the difference in risk is the real one.
All 64 windows averaged and stacked on the report. The shaded band is the middle half of outcomes — its width is the point: the average line is a poor description of any single quarter.
Each dot is one quarter: how it traded in the two weeks before (across) against the overnight gap it produced (up). A shapeless cloud means the run-in told you nothing — r = 0.08, not distinguishable from chance.
Up is green, down is red; the arrow and sign carry the direction too.
Two weeks either side of each report, indexed to the last close before the numbers came out. The shaded area is how much of the move the report accounts for. The other 57 quarters are in the table below.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $386.47 on 21 Oct 2026 → $374.29 at the open on 22 Oct 2026. The first session gave some back.
Reported during the session, so the reaction is $354.11 on 1 Oct 2026 → $360.08 at the open on 2 Oct 2026. The first session kept going.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $374.01 on 22 Jul 2026 → $341.00 at the open on 23 Jul 2026. The first session kept going.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $387.51 on 22 Apr 2026 → $375.28 at the open on 23 Apr 2026. The first session kept going.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $431.46 on 28 Jan 2026 → $437.80 at the open on 29 Jan 2026. The first session reversed.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $438.97 on 22 Oct 2025 → $420.00 at the open on 23 Oct 2025. The first session reversed.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $332.56 on 23 Jul 2025 → $310.00 at the open on 24 Jul 2025. The first session kept going.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $237.97 on 22 Apr 2025 → $254.86 at the open on 23 Apr 2025. The first session gave some back.
Newest first. Quarter links open the filing on SEC EDGAR.
| Quarter | Reported | When | Last close before | Reaction open | Overnight gap | First session | 2w before | 2w after | Then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21 Oct 2026 | after close | $386.47 | $374.29 | ↓ −3.2% | −3.1% | +2.3% | — | gave some back |
| Q3 2026 | 2 Oct 2026 | intraday | $354.11 | $360.08 | ↑ +1.7% | +4.7% | −3.3% | +0.2% | kept going |
| Q2 2026 | 22 Jul 2026 | after close | $374.01 | $341.00 | ↓ −8.8% | −14.5% | −5.1% | −14.6% | kept going |
| Q1 2026 | 22 Apr 2026 | after close | $387.51 | $375.28 | ↓ −3.2% | −3.6% | +12.9% | +6.3% | kept going |
| Q4 2025 | 28 Jan 2026 | after close | $431.46 | $437.80 | ↑ +1.5% | −3.5% | −3.5% | −3.3% | reversed |
| Q3 2025 | 22 Oct 2025 | after close | $438.97 | $420.00 | ↓ −4.3% | +2.3% | +0.1% | +1.6% | reversed |
| Q2 2025 | 23 Jul 2025 | after close | $332.56 | $310.00 | ↓ −6.8% | −8.2% | +12.4% | −3.1% | kept going |
| Q1 2025 | 22 Apr 2025 | after close | $237.97 | $254.86 | ↑ +7.1% | +5.4% | +2.0% | +16.1% | gave some back |
| Q4 2024 | 29 Jan 2025 | after close | $389.10 | $410.78 | ↑ +5.6% | +2.9% | −1.8% | −8.5% | gave some back |
| Q3 2024 | 23 Oct 2024 | after close | $213.65 | $244.68 | ↑ +14.5% | +21.9% | −11.4% | +39.0% | kept going |
| Q2 2024 | 23 Jul 2024 | after close | $246.38 | $225.42 | ↓ −8.5% | −12.3% | −6.1% | −22.2% | kept going |
| Q1 2024 | 23 Apr 2024 | after close | $144.68 | $162.84 | ↑ +12.6% | +12.1% | −18.2% | +20.8% | gave some back |
| Q4 2023 | 24 Jan 2024 | after close | $207.83 | $189.70 | ↓ −8.7% | −12.1% | −11.5% | −8.8% | kept going |
| Q3 2023 | 18 Oct 2023 | after close | $242.68 | $225.95 | ↓ −6.9% | −9.3% | −7.1% | −10.0% | kept going |
| Q2 2023 | 19 Jul 2023 | after close | $291.26 | $279.56 | ↓ −4.0% | −9.7% | +3.1% | −11.0% | kept going |
| Q1 2023 | 19 Apr 2023 | after close | $180.59 | $166.17 | ↓ −8.0% | −9.7% | −6.2% | −10.7% | kept going |
| Q4 2022 | 25 Jan 2023 | after close | $144.43 | $159.97 | ↑ +10.8% | +11.0% | +21.5% | +43.5% | kept going |
| Q3 2022 | 19 Oct 2022 | after close | $222.04 | $208.28 | ↓ −6.2% | −6.6% | −7.8% | −3.0% | kept going |
| Q2 2022 | 20 Jul 2022 | after close | $247.50 | $255.11 | ↑ +3.1% | +9.8% | +6.8% | +24.7% | kept going |
| Q1 2022 | 20 Apr 2022 | after close | $325.73 | $358.24 | ↑ +10.0% | +3.2% | −10.5% | −10.6% | gave some back |
| Q4 2021 | 26 Jan 2022 | after close | $312.47 | $311.12 | ↓ −0.4% | −11.6% | −11.9% | −3.5% | kept going |
| Q3 2021 | 20 Oct 2021 | after close | $288.60 | $285.33 | ↓ −1.1% | +3.3% | +10.6% | +42.1% | reversed |
| Q2 2021 | 26 Jul 2021 | after close | $219.21 | $221.13 | ↑ +0.9% | −2.0% | −4.1% | +8.0% | reversed |
| Q1 2021 | 26 Apr 2021 | after close | $246.07 | $239.32 | ↓ −2.7% | −4.5% | +5.2% | −16.4% | kept going |
| Q4 2020 | 27 Jan 2021 | after close | $288.05 | $273.33 | ↓ −5.1% | −3.3% | +1.7% | −6.1% | gave some back |
| Q3 2020 | 21 Oct 2020 | after close | $140.88 | $147.31 | ↑ +4.6% | +0.7% | −0.6% | +3.7% | gave some back |
| Q2 2020 | 22 Jul 2020 | after close | $106.16 | $111.93 | ↑ +5.4% | −5.0% | +16.6% | −6.5% | reversed |
| Q1 2020 | 29 Apr 2020 | after close | $53.37 | $57.01 | ↑ +6.8% | −2.3% | +9.7% | +0.4% | reversed |
| Q4 2019 | 29 Jan 2020 | after close | $38.73 | $42.16 | ↑ +8.9% | +10.3% | +8.0% | +38.4% | kept going |
| Q3 2019 | 23 Oct 2019 | after close | $16.98 | $19.89 | ↑ +17.2% | +17.7% | +4.2% | +31.7% | kept going |
| Q2 2019 | 24 Jul 2019 | after close | $17.66 | $15.57 | ↓ −11.8% | −13.6% | +10.9% | −10.0% | kept going |
| Q1 2019 | 24 Apr 2019 | after close | $17.24 | $17.00 | ↓ −1.4% | −4.3% | −5.0% | −6.4% | kept going |
| Q4 2018 | 30 Jan 2019 | after close | $20.59 | $20.07 | ↓ −2.5% | −0.6% | −10.4% | −1.6% | gave some back |
| Q3 2018 | 24 Oct 2018 | after close | $19.23 | $21.15 | ↑ +10.0% | +9.1% | +12.3% | +21.8% | gave some back |
| Q2 2018 | 1 Aug 2018 | after close | $20.06 | $21.90 | ↑ +9.2% | +16.2% | −7.1% | +11.5% | kept going |
| Q1 2018 | 2 May 2018 | after close | $20.08 | $18.59 | ↓ −7.4% | −5.5% | +2.7% | −5.5% | gave some back |
| Q4 2017 | 7 Feb 2018 | after close | $23.00 | $22.89 | ↓ −0.5% | −8.6% | −0.3% | +2.0% | kept going |
| Q3 2017 | 1 Nov 2017 | after close | $21.41 | $20.01 | ↓ −6.5% | −6.8% | −10.7% | −2.7% | kept going |
| Q2 2017 | 2 Aug 2017 | after close | $21.73 | $23.02 | ↑ +6.0% | +6.5% | +0.2% | +8.0% | kept going |
| Q1 2017 | 3 May 2017 | after close | $20.74 | $20.50 | ↓ −1.2% | −5.0% | +1.8% | +0.7% | kept going |
| Q4 2016 | 3 Jan 2017 | after close | $14.47 | $14.32 | ↓ −1.0% | +4.6% | +7.2% | +12.3% | reversed |
| Q3 2016 | 26 Oct 2016 | after close | $13.48 | $14.09 | ↑ +4.5% | +0.9% | +0.4% | −8.4% | gave some back |
| Q2 2016 | 3 Aug 2016 | after close | $15.05 | $15.05 | ↓ 0.0% | +2.1% | −1.1% | −1.0% | flat |
| Q1 2016 | 4 May 2016 | after close | $14.84 | $15.23 | ↑ +2.7% | −5.0% | −11.0% | −3.3% | reversed |
| Q4 2015 | 10 Feb 2016 | after close | $9.58 | $10.13 | ↑ +5.8% | +4.7% | −23.6% | +32.5% | gave some back |
| Q3 2015 | 3 Nov 2015 | after close | $13.89 | $15.13 | ↑ +8.9% | +11.2% | −2.2% | +6.1% | kept going |
| Q2 2015 | 5 Aug 2015 | after close | $18.01 | $16.64 | ↓ −7.6% | −8.9% | +0.8% | −10.4% | kept going |
| Q1 2015 | 6 May 2015 | after close | $15.36 | $14.73 | ↓ −4.1% | +2.8% | +5.0% | +6.6% | reversed |
| Q4 2014 | 11 Feb 2015 | after close | $14.19 | $12.91 | ↓ −9.0% | −4.7% | +6.7% | −4.4% | gave some back |
| Q3 2014 | 5 Nov 2014 | after close | $15.40 | $15.63 | ↑ +1.5% | +4.4% | −0.1% | +7.7% | kept going |
| Q2 2014 | 31 Jul 2014 | after close | $14.89 | $15.07 | ↑ +1.2% | +4.5% | +3.7% | +17.3% | kept going |
| Q1 2014 | 7 May 2014 | after close | $13.42 | $12.13 | ↓ −9.6% | −11.3% | −3.2% | +1.8% | kept going |
| Q4 2013 | 19 Feb 2014 | after close | $12.91 | $14.33 | ↑ +11.0% | +8.4% | +8.3% | +30.6% | gave some back |
| Q3 2013 | 5 Nov 2013 | after close | $11.79 | $10.32 | ↓ −12.4% | −14.5% | +3.1% | −31.5% | kept going |
| Q2 2013 | 7 Aug 2013 | after close | $8.95 | $10.29 | ↑ +15.0% | +14.3% | +10.3% | +17.0% | gave some back |
| Q1 2013 | 8 May 2013 | after close | $3.72 | $4.68 | ↑ +25.7% | +24.4% | +10.6% | +66.2% | gave some back |
| Q3 2012 | 5 Nov 2012 | intraday | $1.93 | $1.99 | ↑ +3.1% | +8.9% | +0.4% | +13.8% | kept going |
| Q2 2012 | 25 Jul 2012 | after close | $1.93 | $1.99 | ↑ +3.3% | −2.8% | −8.1% | +1.6% | reversed |
| Q1 2012 | 9 May 2012 | after close | $2.00 | $2.20 | ↑ +9.7% | +9.6% | −8.7% | +0.8% | gave some back |
| Q4 2011 | 15 Feb 2012 | after close | $2.24 | $2.23 | ↓ −0.3% | +1.7% | +13.6% | +1.3% | reversed |
| Q2 2011 | 3 Aug 2011 | after close | $1.81 | $1.77 | ↓ −2.5% | −9.0% | −5.2% | −10.8% | kept going |
| Q1 2011 | 4 May 2011 | after close | $1.78 | $1.81 | ↑ +1.9% | −0.9% | +6.1% | +5.7% | reversed |
| Q4 2010 | 15 Feb 2011 | after close | $1.52 | $1.54 | ↑ +1.1% | +8.3% | −4.5% | +6.6% | kept going |
| Q3 2010 | 9 Nov 2010 | after close | $1.64 | $1.63 | ↓ −0.6% | +19.2% | +15.3% | +44.0% | reversed |
| Q2 2010 | 4 Aug 2010 | after close | $1.42 | $1.44 | ↑ +1.3% | −3.8% | +5.1% | −11.6% | reversed |