NVDA · 88 quarters on record · reports after the close
Four questions answered from Nvidia's own 88 reports. Averages carry a 95% range; when that range crosses zero, the honest reading is “no edge detected”, not “a small edge”.
Leans up — 61%
54 up, 34 down across 88 reports. Still 39% of the time it went the other way.
No
Correlation between the two weeks before and the overnight gap is -0.03 — essentially none, and not distinguishable from chance at n = 88. How Nvidia traded into the print said nothing about which way it gapped.
Nothing above just holding it
Buying at the last close before the report and selling two weeks later averaged +2.8% across 88 reports. But any 11-session hold of Nvidia, started on any day in the same era, averaged +1.9% — so the report-specific part is +0.9%. The 95% range on the earnings trade is +0.2% to +5.4%, which includes the ordinary-hold figure — buying before a report has paid about what owning Nvidia at any other time paid. The report adds swing, not return.
Holding through did better by 2.7pp
Buying at the open after the news and selling two weeks later averaged +0.1%, against +2.8% for holding through. The difference is −2.7%, but holding through also exposes you to the 3.9% median overnight swing — which landed against you 39% of the time, worst at −19.3%. The two averages' ranges overlap, so the difference itself is not distinguishable from noise; the difference in risk is the real one.
All 88 windows averaged and stacked on the report. The shaded band is the middle half of outcomes — its width is the point: the average line is a poor description of any single quarter.
Each dot is one quarter: how it traded in the two weeks before (across) against the overnight gap it produced (up). A shapeless cloud means the run-in told you nothing — r = -0.03, not distinguishable from chance.
Up is green, down is red; the arrow and sign carry the direction too.
Two weeks either side of each report, indexed to the last close before the numbers came out. The shaded area is how much of the move the report accounts for. The other 80 quarters are in the table below.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $209.66 on 26 Aug 2026 → $222.86 at the open on 27 Aug 2026. The first session kept going.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $223.47 on 20 May 2026 → $222.29 at the open on 21 May 2026. The first session kept going.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $195.56 on 25 Feb 2026 → $194.27 at the open on 26 Feb 2026. The first session kept going.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $186.52 on 19 Nov 2025 → $195.95 at the open on 20 Nov 2025. The first session reversed.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $181.60 on 27 Aug 2025 → $180.82 at the open on 28 Aug 2025. The first session kept going.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $134.81 on 28 May 2025 → $142.25 at the open on 29 May 2025. The first session gave some back.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $131.28 on 26 Feb 2025 → $135.00 at the open on 27 Feb 2025. The first session reversed.
Reported after the close, so the reaction is $145.89 on 20 Nov 2024 → $149.35 at the open on 21 Nov 2024. The first session gave some back.
Newest first. Quarter links open the filing on SEC EDGAR.
| Quarter | Reported | When | Last close before | Reaction open | Overnight gap | First session | 2w before | 2w after | Then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 26 Aug 2026 | after close | $209.66 | $222.86 | ↑ +6.3% | +8.7% | −6.4% | +4.1% | kept going |
| Q1 2026 | 20 May 2026 | after close | $223.47 | $222.29 | ↓ −0.5% | −1.8% | +7.5% | −8.2% | kept going |
| Q4 2025 | 25 Feb 2026 | after close | $195.56 | $194.27 | ↓ −0.7% | −5.5% | +3.7% | −6.4% | kept going |
| Q3 2025 | 19 Nov 2025 | after close | $186.52 | $195.95 | ↑ +5.1% | −3.2% | −4.5% | −2.2% | reversed |
| Q2 2025 | 27 Aug 2025 | after close | $181.60 | $180.82 | ↓ −0.4% | −0.8% | 0.0% | −2.1% | kept going |
| Q1 2025 | 28 May 2025 | after close | $134.81 | $142.25 | ↑ +5.5% | +3.2% | +3.8% | +7.6% | gave some back |
| Q4 2024 | 26 Feb 2025 | after close | $131.28 | $135.00 | ↑ +2.8% | −8.5% | −1.1% | −12.0% | reversed |
| Q3 2024 | 20 Nov 2024 | after close | $145.89 | $149.35 | ↑ +2.4% | +0.5% | +0.2% | −2.4% | gave some back |
| Q2 2024 | 28 Aug 2024 | after close | $125.61 | $121.36 | ↓ −3.4% | −6.4% | +6.4% | −5.2% | kept going |
| Q1 2024 | 22 May 2024 | after close | $94.95 | $102.03 | ↑ +7.5% | +9.3% | +5.0% | +27.3% | kept going |
| Q4 2023 | 21 Feb 2024 | after close | $67.47 | $75.03 | ↑ +11.2% | +16.4% | −1.1% | +37.3% | kept going |
| Q3 2023 | 21 Nov 2023 | after close | $49.94 | $49.85 | ↓ −0.2% | −2.5% | +8.7% | −6.7% | flat |
| Q2 2023 | 23 Aug 2023 | after close | $47.12 | $50.22 | ↑ +6.6% | +0.1% | +10.7% | −3.3% | gave some back |
| Q1 2023 | 24 May 2023 | after close | $30.54 | $38.52 | ↑ +26.1% | +24.4% | +5.7% | +27.0% | gave some back |
| Q4 2022 | 22 Feb 2023 | after close | $20.75 | $23.44 | ↑ +12.9% | +14.0% | −6.4% | +12.9% | kept going |
| Q3 2022 | 16 Nov 2022 | after close | $15.91 | $15.72 | ↓ −1.2% | −1.5% | +20.4% | +6.1% | kept going |
| Q2 2022 | 24 Aug 2022 | after close | $17.22 | $16.84 | ↓ −2.2% | +4.0% | −4.8% | −16.5% | reversed |
| Q1 2022 | 25 May 2022 | after close | $16.98 | $16.04 | ↓ −5.5% | +5.2% | +2.1% | 0.0% | reversed |
| Q4 2021 | 16 Feb 2022 | after close | $26.51 | $25.63 | ↓ −3.3% | −7.6% | +5.0% | −13.5% | kept going |
| Q3 2021 | 17 Nov 2021 | after close | $29.26 | $32.37 | ↑ +10.6% | +8.2% | +10.0% | +4.9% | gave some back |
| Q2 2021 | 18 Aug 2021 | after close | $19.04 | $19.49 | ↑ +2.4% | +4.0% | −6.1% | +17.6% | kept going |
| Q1 2021 | 26 May 2021 | after close | $15.70 | $15.70 | ↑ 0.0% | −1.4% | +14.1% | +13.5% | flat |
| Q4 2020 | 24 Feb 2021 | after close | $14.50 | $14.05 | ↓ −3.1% | −8.2% | +1.7% | −10.4% | kept going |
| Q3 2020 | 18 Nov 2020 | after close | $13.43 | $13.21 | ↓ −1.6% | +0.1% | −2.6% | +1.0% | reversed |
| Q2 2020 | 19 Aug 2020 | after close | $12.14 | $11.98 | ↓ −1.4% | 0.0% | +7.5% | +7.2% | reversed |
| Q1 2020 | 21 May 2020 | after close | $8.78 | $8.83 | ↑ +0.6% | +2.9% | +15.1% | +0.3% | kept going |
| Q4 2019 | 13 Feb 2020 | after close | $6.77 | $7.18 | ↑ +6.1% | +7.0% | +10.2% | +2.1% | kept going |
| Q3 2019 | 14 Nov 2019 | after close | $5.25 | $5.24 | ↓ 0.0% | −2.7% | +4.4% | −0.3% | flat |
| Q2 2019 | 15 Aug 2019 | after close | $3.72 | $3.98 | ↑ +7.1% | +7.3% | −9.8% | +12.6% | kept going |
| Q1 2019 | 16 May 2019 | after close | $4.01 | $3.96 | ↓ −1.0% | −2.3% | −12.6% | −16.5% | kept going |
| Q4 2018 | 14 Feb 2019 | after close | $3.86 | $4.07 | ↑ +5.5% | +1.8% | +7.5% | +1.5% | gave some back |
| Q3 2018 | 15 Nov 2018 | after close | $5.06 | $4.08 | ↓ −19.3% | −18.8% | −7.2% | −16.0% | gave some back |
| Q2 2018 | 16 Aug 2018 | after close | $6.44 | $6.32 | ↓ −1.7% | −4.9% | +2.7% | +9.0% | kept going |
| Q1 2018 | 10 May 2018 | after close | $6.50 | $6.32 | ↓ −2.8% | −2.2% | +15.5% | −4.2% | gave some back |
| Q4 2017 | 8 Feb 2018 | after close | $5.44 | $5.96 | ↑ +9.5% | +6.7% | −8.0% | +13.4% | gave some back |
| Q3 2017 | 9 Nov 2017 | after close | $5.13 | $5.33 | ↑ +3.8% | +5.3% | +4.9% | +4.3% | kept going |
| Q2 2017 | 10 Aug 2017 | after close | $4.12 | $3.93 | ↓ −4.6% | −5.3% | +1.9% | −0.6% | kept going |
| Q1 2017 | 9 May 2017 | after close | $2.57 | $2.86 | ↑ +11.0% | +17.8% | −1.7% | +34.6% | kept going |
| Q4 2016 | 9 Feb 2017 | after close | $2.91 | $3.00 | ↑ +3.0% | −2.4% | +6.2% | −10.3% | reversed |
| Q3 2016 | 10 Nov 2016 | after close | $1.69 | $1.99 | ↑ +17.4% | +29.8% | −4.1% | +38.9% | kept going |
| Q2 2016 | 11 Aug 2016 | after close | $1.49 | $1.55 | ↑ +3.7% | +5.6% | +6.3% | +3.9% | kept going |
| Q1 2016 | 12 May 2016 | after close | $0.89 | $0.98 | ↑ +10.2% | +15.3% | −1.7% | +29.1% | kept going |
| Q4 2015 | 17 Feb 2016 | after close | $0.69 | $0.75 | ↑ +8.2% | +8.6% | −1.4% | +18.0% | kept going |
| Q3 2015 | 5 Nov 2015 | after close | $0.69 | $0.76 | ↑ +9.9% | +13.9% | −2.4% | +13.3% | kept going |
| Q2 2015 | 6 Aug 2015 | after close | $0.51 | $0.56 | ↑ +9.8% | +12.4% | +4.1% | +5.0% | kept going |
| Q1 2015 | 7 May 2015 | after close | $0.56 | $0.53 | ↓ −6.6% | −7.4% | +1.2% | −7.3% | kept going |
| Q4 2014 | 11 Feb 2015 | after close | $0.52 | $0.55 | ↑ +5.7% | +7.1% | +7.8% | +6.0% | kept going |
| Q3 2014 | 6 Nov 2014 | after close | $0.51 | $0.51 | ↑ +1.1% | −2.1% | +10.6% | +1.2% | reversed |
| Q2 2014 | 7 Aug 2014 | after close | $0.44 | $0.46 | ↑ +4.4% | +8.8% | −3.6% | +9.3% | kept going |
| Q1 2014 | 6 May 2014 | intraday | $0.47 | $0.47 | ↑ +1.0% | −2.0% | −0.4% | −2.1% | reversed |
| Q4 2013 | 12 Feb 2014 | after close | $0.42 | $0.43 | ↑ +2.5% | +3.1% | +8.9% | +9.2% | kept going |
| Q3 2013 | 7 Nov 2013 | after close | $0.36 | $0.38 | ↑ +3.1% | +7.0% | −5.5% | +4.4% | kept going |
| Q2 2013 | 8 Aug 2013 | after close | $0.37 | $0.35 | ↓ −3.9% | −1.4% | +3.1% | +1.8% | gave some back |
| Q1 2013 | 9 May 2013 | after close | $0.35 | $0.36 | ↑ +2.1% | +4.5% | +3.3% | +4.5% | kept going |
| Q4 2012 | 13 Feb 2013 | after close | $0.31 | $0.31 | ↓ −1.4% | +2.9% | +0.4% | +2.7% | reversed |
| Q3 2012 | 8 Nov 2012 | after close | $0.32 | $0.32 | ↑ +0.6% | −3.8% | +2.8% | −4.5% | reversed |
| Q2 2012 | 9 Aug 2012 | after close | $0.37 | $0.38 | ↑ +2.6% | −0.6% | +11.9% | −0.8% | reversed |
| Q1 2012 | 11 May 2012 | intraday | $0.31 | $0.34 | ↑ +8.3% | +6.4% | −5.1% | −0.2% | gave some back |
| Q4 2011 | 15 Feb 2012 | after close | $0.40 | $0.38 | ↓ −6.9% | +1.7% | +8.3% | −4.9% | reversed |
| Q3 2011 | 10 Nov 2011 | after close | $0.36 | $0.37 | ↑ +2.8% | +3.5% | −5.1% | +2.5% | kept going |
| Q2 2011 | 11 Aug 2011 | after close | $0.34 | $0.37 | ↑ +10.6% | −4.0% | −3.0% | −3.0% | reversed |
| Q1 2011 | 12 May 2011 | after close | $0.51 | $0.48 | ↓ −6.3% | −10.9% | +5.1% | −4.9% | kept going |
| Q4 2010 | 16 Feb 2011 | after close | $0.58 | $0.57 | ↓ −2.8% | +9.8% | −8.6% | −11.2% | reversed |
| Q3 2010 | 12 Nov 2010 | intraday | $0.32 | $0.33 | ↑ +3.8% | +5.1% | +4.6% | +9.0% | kept going |
| Q2 2010 | 12 Aug 2010 | after close | $0.22 | $0.23 | ↑ +3.3% | +4.8% | −1.9% | +12.9% | kept going |
| Q1 2010 | 13 May 2010 | after close | $0.37 | $0.34 | ↓ −6.8% | −11.5% | −12.0% | −10.3% | kept going |
| Q4 2009 | 17 Feb 2010 | after close | $0.45 | $0.42 | ↓ −5.5% | −6.5% | +6.6% | −6.6% | kept going |
| Q3 2009 | 5 Nov 2009 | after close | $0.31 | $0.33 | ↑ +6.3% | +7.2% | −8.9% | +5.1% | kept going |
| Q2 2009 | 6 Aug 2009 | after close | $0.33 | $0.35 | ↑ +5.4% | +4.5% | +0.9% | +6.2% | gave some back |
| Q1 2009 | 7 May 2009 | after close | $0.27 | $0.26 | ↓ −2.2% | −13.8% | −3.9% | −8.5% | kept going |
| Q4 2008 | 10 Feb 2009 | after close | $0.23 | $0.21 | ↓ −8.0% | −12.5% | +10.4% | −11.4% | kept going |
| Q3 2008 | 6 Nov 2008 | after close | $0.19 | $0.22 | ↑ +13.9% | +14.4% | +16.5% | −16.3% | kept going |
| Q2 2008 | 12 Aug 2008 | after close | $0.28 | $0.30 | ↑ +7.9% | +10.7% | −5.0% | +19.1% | kept going |
| Q1 2008 | 8 May 2008 | after close | $0.55 | $0.55 | ↑ +0.3% | +2.6% | +10.0% | +5.3% | kept going |
| Q4 2007 | 13 Feb 2008 | after close | $0.68 | $0.66 | ↓ −2.9% | −16.3% | +7.3% | −20.8% | kept going |
| Q3 2007 | 8 Nov 2007 | after close | $0.85 | $0.86 | ↑ +2.1% | −1.4% | −2.5% | −12.8% | reversed |
| Q2 2007 | 9 Aug 2007 | after close | $0.77 | $0.71 | ↓ −8.2% | −4.6% | +4.0% | +4.6% | gave some back |
| Q1 2007 | 10 May 2007 | after close | $0.55 | $0.58 | ↑ +5.4% | +7.1% | −2.1% | +2.6% | kept going |
| Q4 2006 | 13 Feb 2007 | after close | $0.57 | $0.57 | ↑ +0.9% | −1.3% | +10.5% | −10.0% | reversed |
| Q3 2006 | 9 Nov 2006 | after close | $0.59 | $0.58 | ↓ −0.9% | −2.4% | +4.3% | +0.1% | kept going |
| Q2 2006 | 12 Sep 2006 | intraday | $0.47 | $0.47 | ↓ −0.4% | +2.6% | +6.2% | +7.5% | reversed |
| Q1 2006 | 11 May 2006 | after close | $0.47 | $0.46 | ↓ −2.4% | −7.5% | −2.4% | −15.8% | kept going |
| Q4 2005 | 16 Feb 2006 | after close | $0.39 | $0.42 | ↑ +7.4% | +0.6% | +8.2% | +3.9% | gave some back |
| Q3 2005 | 9 Nov 2005 | after close | $0.29 | $0.30 | ↑ +3.7% | −3.7% | +8.3% | +9.5% | reversed |
| Q2 2005 | 11 Aug 2005 | after close | $0.24 | $0.25 | ↑ +5.9% | +6.0% | +3.6% | +2.4% | kept going |
| Q1 2005 | 12 May 2005 | after close | $0.19 | $0.21 | ↑ +9.1% | +11.2% | +5.0% | +20.7% | kept going |
| Q4 2004 | 17 Feb 2005 | after close | $0.21 | $0.23 | ↑ +8.1% | +10.8% | +4.6% | +9.2% | kept going |
| Q3 2004 | 4 Nov 2004 | after close | $0.13 | $0.15 | ↑ +15.0% | +14.5% | +9.7% | +23.1% | gave some back |