SHOP · 43 quarters on record · reports before the open
Four questions answered from Shopify's own 43 reports. Averages carry a 95% range; when that range crosses zero, the honest reading is “no edge detected”, not “a small edge”.
A coin flip
23 up, 20 down across 43 reports. Direction is not something this history predicts.
No
Correlation between the two weeks before and the overnight gap is -0.22 — very weak, and not distinguishable from chance at n = 43. How Shopify traded into the print said nothing about which way it gapped.
Nothing above just holding it
Buying at the last close before the report and selling two weeks later averaged +2.9% across 43 reports. But any 11-session hold of Shopify, started on any day in the same era, averaged +2.5% — so the report-specific part is +0.3%. The 95% range on the earnings trade is −2.5% to +8.2%, which includes the ordinary-hold figure — buying before a report has paid about what owning Shopify at any other time paid. The report adds swing, not return.
Holding through did better by 2.5pp
Buying at the open after the news and selling two weeks later averaged +0.4%, against +2.9% for holding through. The difference is −2.5%, but holding through also exposes you to the 6.1% median overnight swing — which landed against you 47% of the time, worst at −17.4%. The two averages' ranges overlap, so the difference itself is not distinguishable from noise; the difference in risk is the real one.
All 43 windows averaged and stacked on the report. The shaded band is the middle half of outcomes — its width is the point: the average line is a poor description of any single quarter.
Each dot is one quarter: how it traded in the two weeks before (across) against the overnight gap it produced (up). A shapeless cloud means the run-in told you nothing — r = -0.22, not distinguishable from chance.
Up is green, down is red; the arrow and sign carry the direction too.
Two weeks either side of each report, indexed to the last close before the numbers came out. The shaded area is how much of the move the report accounts for. The other 35 quarters are in the table below.
Reported before the open, so the reaction is $123.30 on 4 Aug 2026 → $150.00 at the open on 5 Aug 2026. The first session gave some back.
Reported before the open, so the reaction is $127.55 on 4 May 2026 → $116.05 at the open on 5 May 2026. The first session kept going.
Reported before the open, so the reaction is $127.24 on 10 Feb 2026 → $138.90 at the open on 11 Feb 2026. The first session reversed.
Reported before the open, so the reaction is $172.94 on 3 Nov 2025 → $163.07 at the open on 4 Nov 2025. The first session kept going.
Reported before the open, so the reaction is $127.00 on 5 Aug 2025 → $145.16 at the open on 6 Aug 2025. The first session kept going.
Reported before the open, so the reaction is $94.50 on 7 May 2025 → $89.69 at the open on 8 May 2025. The first session gave some back.
Reported before the open, so the reaction is $119.90 on 10 Feb 2025 → $122.28 at the open on 11 Feb 2025. The first session kept going.
Reported before the open, so the reaction is $89.99 on 11 Nov 2024 → $107.52 at the open on 12 Nov 2024. The first session kept going.
Newest first. Quarter links open the filing on SEC EDGAR.
| Quarter | Reported | When | Last close before | Reaction open | Overnight gap | First session | 2w before | 2w after | Then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 5 Aug 2026 | pre-market | $123.30 | $150.00 | ↑ +21.7% | +17.0% | +0.2% | +18.9% | gave some back |
| Q1 2026 | 5 May 2026 | pre-market | $127.55 | $116.05 | ↓ −9.0% | −15.6% | −5.6% | −20.8% | kept going |
| Q4 2025 | 11 Feb 2026 | pre-market | $127.24 | $138.90 | ↑ +9.2% | −6.7% | −7.5% | −1.0% | reversed |
| Q3 2025 | 4 Nov 2025 | pre-market | $172.94 | $163.07 | ↓ −5.7% | −6.9% | +5.0% | −18.8% | kept going |
| Q2 2025 | 6 Aug 2025 | pre-market | $127.00 | $145.16 | ↑ +14.3% | +22.0% | +2.7% | +8.1% | kept going |
| Q1 2025 | 8 May 2025 | pre-market | $94.50 | $89.69 | ↓ −5.1% | −0.5% | +3.9% | +9.3% | gave some back |
| Q4 2024 | 11 Feb 2025 | pre-market | $119.90 | $122.28 | ↑ +2.0% | +3.1% | +11.7% | −5.6% | kept going |
| Q3 2024 | 12 Nov 2024 | pre-market | $89.99 | $107.52 | ↑ +19.5% | +21.0% | +12.7% | +24.5% | kept going |
| Q2 2024 | 7 Aug 2024 | pre-market | $54.22 | $64.50 | ↑ +19.0% | +17.8% | −13.5% | +40.4% | gave some back |
| Q1 2024 | 8 May 2024 | pre-market | $77.05 | $63.67 | ↓ −17.4% | −18.6% | +4.1% | −23.8% | kept going |
| Q4 2023 | 13 Feb 2024 | pre-market | $89.12 | $77.80 | ↓ −12.7% | −13.4% | +6.7% | −15.2% | kept going |
| Q3 2023 | 2 Nov 2023 | pre-market | $48.79 | $57.64 | ↑ +18.1% | +22.4% | −7.7% | +37.9% | kept going |
| Q2 2023 | 2 Aug 2023 | pre-market | $67.45 | $65.64 | ↓ −2.7% | −7.4% | +0.3% | −18.0% | kept going |
| Q1 2023 | 4 May 2023 | pre-market | $46.27 | $54.87 | ↑ +18.6% | +23.8% | −5.7% | +31.5% | kept going |
| Q4 2022 | 15 Feb 2023 | pre-market | $50.11 | $51.00 | ↑ +1.8% | +6.5% | +1.7% | −17.8% | kept going |
| Q3 2022 | 27 Oct 2022 | pre-market | $29.06 | $31.03 | ↑ +6.8% | +17.3% | +11.8% | +25.6% | kept going |
| Q2 2022 | 27 Jul 2022 | pre-market | $31.55 | $31.46 | ↓ −0.3% | +11.7% | −2.6% | +28.7% | reversed |
| Q1 2022 | 5 May 2022 | pre-market | $48.55 | $40.76 | ↓ −16.0% | −14.9% | −7.5% | −19.4% | gave some back |
| Q4 2021 | 16 Feb 2022 | pre-market | $88.95 | $79.99 | ↓ −10.1% | −16.0% | −9.6% | −28.0% | kept going |
| Q3 2021 | 28 Oct 2021 | pre-market | $136.11 | $135.00 | ↓ −0.8% | +7.0% | −2.7% | +9.5% | reversed |
| Q2 2021 | 28 Jul 2021 | pre-market | $155.51 | $157.70 | ↑ +1.4% | −1.1% | +2.5% | −4.5% | reversed |
| Q1 2021 | 28 Apr 2021 | pre-market | $115.69 | $121.68 | ↑ +5.2% | +11.4% | −6.8% | −6.3% | kept going |
| Q4 2020 | 17 Feb 2021 | pre-market | $147.40 | $138.42 | ↓ −6.1% | −3.3% | +28.7% | −17.2% | gave some back |
| Q3 2020 | 29 Oct 2020 | pre-market | $102.67 | $105.26 | ↑ +2.5% | −4.8% | −5.1% | −9.8% | reversed |
| Q2 2020 | 29 Jul 2020 | pre-market | $98.50 | $110.74 | ↑ +12.4% | +7.0% | +1.1% | +0.6% | gave some back |
| Q1 2020 | 6 May 2020 | pre-market | $68.61 | $67.29 | ↓ −1.9% | +6.9% | +17.3% | +13.4% | reversed |
| Q4 2019 | 12 Feb 2020 | pre-market | $49.28 | $56.89 | ↑ +15.5% | +7.8% | +5.4% | −11.0% | gave some back |
| Q3 2019 | 29 Oct 2019 | pre-market | $32.49 | $30.60 | ↓ −5.8% | −3.8% | −5.6% | −6.0% | gave some back |
| Q2 2019 | 1 Aug 2019 | pre-market | $31.79 | $33.40 | ↑ +5.1% | +7.4% | −2.3% | +10.4% | kept going |
| Q1 2019 | 30 Apr 2019 | pre-market | $22.58 | $22.64 | ↑ +0.3% | +7.9% | +5.1% | +12.1% | kept going |
| Q4 2018 | 12 Feb 2019 | pre-market | $17.32 | $16.37 | ↓ −5.5% | +1.4% | +8.6% | +9.3% | reversed |
| Q3 2018 | 25 Oct 2018 | pre-market | $12.23 | $13.14 | ↑ +7.4% | +12.0% | −6.0% | +22.3% | kept going |
| Q2 2018 | 31 Jul 2018 | pre-market | $14.81 | $13.85 | ↓ −6.5% | −6.7% | −10.4% | −2.5% | kept going |
| Q1 2018 | 1 May 2018 | pre-market | $13.36 | $12.51 | ↓ −6.4% | −4.5% | +14.3% | +6.6% | gave some back |
| Q4 2017 | 15 Feb 2018 | pre-market | $13.76 | $13.50 | ↓ −1.9% | +0.3% | +7.5% | −0.6% | reversed |
| Q3 2017 | 31 Oct 2017 | pre-market | $10.94 | $10.14 | ↓ −7.3% | −9.0% | +12.8% | −9.5% | kept going |
| Q2 2017 | 1 Aug 2017 | pre-market | $9.24 | $10.39 | ↑ +12.5% | +12.7% | +2.1% | +0.8% | kept going |
| Q1 2017 | 2 May 2017 | pre-market | $7.73 | $8.04 | ↑ +4.1% | +7.4% | +7.8% | +22.9% | kept going |
| Q4 2016 | 15 Feb 2017 | pre-market | $5.61 | $5.49 | ↓ −2.1% | +8.1% | +10.3% | +6.5% | reversed |
| Q3 2016 | 2 Nov 2016 | pre-market | $4.08 | $4.20 | ↑ +3.0% | +6.8% | −4.0% | −1.0% | kept going |
| Q2 2016 | 3 Aug 2016 | pre-market | $3.35 | $3.50 | ↑ +4.3% | +9.7% | +0.8% | +15.5% | kept going |
| Q1 2016 | 4 May 2016 | pre-market | $3.07 | $3.07 | ↓ 0.0% | −3.7% | −4.1% | −14.3% | flat |
| Q4 2015 | 17 Feb 2016 | pre-market | $2.05 | $2.42 | ↑ +18.0% | +9.1% | −12.9% | +18.8% | gave some back |